At This Crucial Time Precautions From Eritrea is Expected.
After Ethiopia rejected the decision of EEBC that grants Badme to Eritrea and Eritrea bans air flights and vehicles movements at night for UNMEE, all of a sudden erupts an avalanche of a decision from the security council that, Ethiopia to allow the border to be demarcated expeditiously and Eritrea to lift the ban for UNMEE to use air flight.
It is remarkable that a tiny horn of Africa land (as they prefer to call her), makes history after watching patiently for more than 2 years since the decision of EEBC is made public. The security council's 11th hour decision about Ethiopia and Eritrea is a serious issue that needs great attention. This time, the security council passes a resolution unlike the previous one by stating as follows.
"In response to warnings of a dangerous crisis brewing between Ethiopia and Eritrea, a draft United Nations Security Council resolution demands that they immediately agree to an international commission's decision ruling on their border, which Ethiopia has rejected. It also demands that Eritrea immediately lift restrictions on helicopter flights and the movement of UN peacekeepers in a border buffer zone and declares the council's "readiness to consider further action" if Eritrea refuses to comply". Emphasis mine.
If we look at the above resolution we can divide it into two parts. The one part deals to Ethiopia and the other part deals to Eritrea. Here the alarming situation is the resolution that regards Eritrea. For the resolution that regards to Ethiopia is not new. Now its has become a rhetoric by the security council to pass a resolution every six month that deals with Ethiopia. It is for this reason I call great attention has to be paid that resolution concerns Eritrea. I mentioned in my early article titled the "Number Zero At The UN"
http://afronorway.nstemp.com/Articles/zero.html and I said in that article as the following.
Quote "There is a final and binding decision of EEBC that deals to the border problem between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The security council ignores to its implementation as it does not suits to its preferences. On the other hand, the security council issues a strong statement for Eritrea to reverse its decision about the air reconnaissance of the peace keeping mission. Comparing the two issues mentioned above, the difference is only preferences of the security council to imply its decision. If we assume that, since Ethiopia didn't complied with the decision of the security council and goes its way, it doesn't mean that Eritrea would do the same and goes its way. Here is what the number zero compares with the power of the security council. The security council has the power to destroy a nation as the number zero has the power to destroy numbers." End of quote.
What Eritrea did when it comes to the ban of air flight for UNMME is a good stimuli for the security council to respond the way it responded now. That decision of Eritrea was wise, courageous and timely. Now Eritrea needs wisdom, courage and it is the right time to comply with the security council decision so that not to be engulfed in unwanted row that diverts the attention of the international community from the main issue which is the border demarcation. When the security council meant to take actions they are serious and they have the power to do it. Look at the following two examples what a security council can do.
There are more than hundred resolutions by the security council against Israel and none of them is implied. What did the security council do against Israel? The answer is nothing. There were resolutions by the security council against Iraq and Libya. What happened then? Yes, the security council did take embargoes and military actions. When you look at what the security council do when it comes to passing resolutions and taking actions there is not consistency and it is not predictable. By the way, don't expect fairness and moral high ground from security council. It is an organ of the UN that knows no language of justices and fairness. It is dominated by USA and Great Britain which they have great muscle to take actions according to their preferences.
When we look at the this latest resolution of the security council, for innocent persons it seems as it is drafted by Greece or Jordan. No it is not. It simply is drafted by USA and Great Britain, but they felt ashamed to strangle with this tiny horn of Africa land as they prefer to call her instead by its name Eritrea. Eritrea is becoming an horror to call by its name for these super powers as their preference is to have the jumbo Ethiopia to have some control indirectly on their behave against Eritrea. They know from their deep heart that now their concern is not about the ignition of new war. Their fear is the control they seemed have achieved by occupying sovereign land of Eritrea and making Eritrea at check by their surveillance under the disguise of UNMEE. If we observe deeply, UNMEE is as a replacement of Kagnew Station for USA. They send CIA agents as UNMEE members and make surveillance to the movement of Eritrea. As long as they have UNMEE in Eritrean soil, CIA do not need a base for watching RED SEA. Well, they have ships and satellites for surveillance. But this time, CIA is not believing surveillance only by satellite as is enough by it self. They have learned a great deal from the mistakes they done against Al Quida and Iraq in this matter. Believing only on satellite surveillance did great harm to their intelligence. Therefore, now they are adding their surveillance on land as well. In my opinion, It is for this reason, for Eritrea to have an end to the border issue with Ethiopia and UNMEE leave Eritrean soil for good. Because the existence of UNMEE only on Eritrean soil seems as an occupation of Eritrean soil by foreign forces.
I am concerned, Eritrea not to fall to the trap of the USA and Great Britain tricks. Though we can imagine that USA by comparing its strategic interest in Red Sea would be much more beneficial to ally with Eritrea than Ethiopia and the logical decision in this matter is USA to pressure Meles to abide by the border commission ruling. On the other hand, Great Britain's interest is to fight poverty in Africa, Ethiopia as an example, and the logical decision for Great Britain will be to support Meles than Eritrea. Now, taking in consideration the differences of interests between USA and Great Britain when it comes to the horn of Africa then it is obvious that the two super powers to fall in a dilemma how to proceed with the issue of the border stalemate between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The compromise between these two super powers is to push for a dialogue and find out a medium way that fulfils the their interests. Here we have to know that small nations like Eritrea and poor countries like Ethiopia are victims of the so called strategic interest of these giants and well established countries. The problem is there is no other power that balances them. Even the veto power at the security council is of no use if they want to go their way (Example is the veto of France against Iraq invasion didn't stopped for USA and Great Britain to take actions. On equal footing having relationship with China and to believe that the veto power of chain works is not going to help. As china prefer its trade with USA and Great Britain than to safe a small nation). Therefore, we have to understand how these two nations plays their game when it comes to fulfil their strategic interest.
USA and Great Britain do have what they call plan A, plan B and etc. They launch first their plan A and see if it works. If they succeed with their plan A, then imposes subplots under plan A. If they fell in plan A, they launch plan B. They do all the means until they achieve their goal. The ultimate plan is to use force directly or indirectly. Nations with limited capacity, though they show some resistance at the beginning, with time goes on they drain their energy and get in to a disastrous actions.
Eritrea at this crucial time, it has to show much restraint and it has to avoid confrontation with the security council. All its actions has to be defended by the logic that a nation has the right to protect its sovereignty. To this date Eritrea is handling the situation in a very respectable manner and is receiving some sympathy from foreign writers. They are saying Eritrea waited patiently and the guarantors of the peace accord failed up to their obligation. The world knows that the obstacle in this case is Ethiopia and what Eritrea doing is just self defense. On the prevailing situation, Eritrea is going to succeed if it maintains that there would not be confrontation with Ethiopia and prove to the world that the relative peace existing today is partly to the contribution of the UNMEE but most of the credit goes to Eritrea and Ethiopia. Especially, Eritrea is paying heavy sacrifices so that peace to prevail in horn of Africa.
In conclusion, Eritrea has to show to the world that even with the limited access of the UNMEE the much exaggerated concern of the UN or UNMEE that war is going to be resumed between Eritrea and Ethiopia has to be proved false. After a while, Eritrea has to show full co-operation with the UN. The reason is, its seat at the UN is much more worth than its stay away as a defiant country. Here, it is going to be an imperative burden for Eritrea to strengthen its diplomacy man power, so that to knock the doors of the influential countries every day with out feeling tiredness to gain sympathy for its cases. We have to give much praise and admiration the recently demonstrations waged by heroic Eritreans at the door of the EU. This peaceful demonstrations have to have a fellow up at the door of the UN. There is one small nation that have great influence in the decision makers of USA. This country can play a great roll to bring differences if this country is taken seriously and embraced with warmth. It is the hard work of Eritrea (thanks to God as well for the good rain) that resulted harvesting excellent crops this year in Eritrea (I congratulate the Eritrean government for its incentives). Why not hard work in diplomacy to achieve good results as well?
God bless Eritrea
Tesfamicael Yohannes
Oslo, Norway.
