Sky wars between Ethiopia and Eritrea

I read an interesting article titled " WILL THE RED LIGHT REMAIN ON?" By Tecle T. Ghide January 10, 2001, in asmarino.com. My interest from that article can be divided in to two parts. The first part could be summarized the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea and the second part the election and democracy in Eritrea. For today, I am going to focus on the first part. Tecle T. Ghide concern about eventual "future war" between Ethiopia and Eritrea is based on the proportionality on population growth between these two nations. Taking in consideration the human waves technique of Ethiopia, it is alarming to note that population growth in Ethiopia is more rated than in Eritrea. This could result a devastating result as long as Ethiopia never abandons to engulf Eritrea on outlet to sea pretext. Having noted what Tecle T. Ghide said I am on different concern than his because, on ground war Ethiopia has got a lasting blow that never once again to try this kind of madness against Eritrea. For future attack by Ethiopia against Eritrea, is going to depend totally on sky. Based on the aforementioned perspective this article is going to elaborate some examples and analyze hypothetically.

USA tried to crush Vietnam on ground, but failed loosing around 50,000 combatants and enormous amount of money and property. When the gulf war started against Saddam, he said Iraq would be another Vietnam. He was wrong. USA learned a lot from Vietnam War. They prepared first to have a complete control on sky. By doing so, they defeated Saddam contrary to his prophesy.

Russia first tried to crush Chechnya on ground war. They failed. Second time, they prepared very well on sky war and able to defeat Chechnya. What did the world said when the whole population was suffering? Nothing. Might is right works in this unfair world.

Now let us see to the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. At the beginning before May 1998 Ethiopia was confident to finish the war by using sky war. Ethiopia undermined or they had poor intelligence of sky capabilities of Eritrea. To great extent the defense and attack of the sky war by Eritrea matched surprisingly to Ethiopia. Which later on Ethiopia forced to depend on ground force. The preparation of Eritrea against any eventuality attack from Ethiopia was very well organized. Except the lack of finance to buy the necessary equipment like Ethiopia did, the rest was very excellent. Because of Eritrea's good preparation on defense and attack on sky this time we are proud nation unlike Chechnya. Our fate as one people and one nation exists today thanks we stood together and we were very alert for our existence.

Next I want to mention some of my speculations why the world was watching silently to Ethiopia's aggression against Eritrea? While Ethiopia was invading inside Eritrea, the world observed without condemning the aggression. Ethiopia destroyed hard won achievements on agriculture and some vital industries. Above all innocent people driven from their homes and were forced to live in very harsh conditions. Why the world kept silent? My speculation is the world was watching if Ethiopia was going to succeed like the Russian did in Chechnya. They did not want to jeopardize their relationship with the then assumed “super power” to be Ethiopia in the horn of Africa. That was because of the strategic interest of the Red Sea. Eritrea being in a very strategic location in Red Sea, the existence of its population is minor to their strategic interest of the concerned parts. The main fear of USA and its alliance is, Red Sea not to be an “Arab sea”. Unless Eritrea proves its neutrality, the relationship Eritrea is going to have with the Arab world and the west, is going to be very delicate and sensitive embroiled with this conflicting strategies. Eritrea should be intelligent enough all the time to keep the balance and remain faithful to give security both to the Arab world and the west. This responsibility in fact, it is heavy burden on Eritrea shoulder because of its natural gift to be found in a very sensitive area. Eritrea has to show to the world that this natural responsibility can be taken care and Eritrea remains faithful to keep it on balance.

My dream and my wish is, there to be a peaceful coexistence and respect of the two nations Ethiopia and Eritrea in particular and the whole horn of Africa in general. I wish Ethiopia would abandon the dream to have access to sea by force and respect the natural gift of Eritrea. Ethiopia needs to concentrate on sustaining hunger, eradicating disease and engage its material and human resources to peace and development in that region. As long as Ethiopia do not shift its notion of owing access to sea the vicious circle of violence once again will appear between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Now the U.N. arms embargo against Eritrea and Ethiopia is suggest to be lifted. If USA has interest on lifting it sooner or later will happen. For Eritreans who are looking for peace and development in that region I believe this is very bad news. For Ethiopia if their hidden agenda is going to be realized for sure the next war will be sky war. The one part who posses good armaments on sky is going to have the upper hand and it is going to decide the stalemate existing now. In last two and half years some battles was won by Ethiopia but the “mother of all war” was won by Eritrea. Thanks to the gallant forces Yikalo and warsay at the same time the dedicated sons and daughters in Diaspora in particular and the heroic people of Eritrea in general our head is up. Next time Ethiopia is going to come with sophisticated planes and armaments on sky and that is going to determine the over all situation in that area. Eritrea has to watch carefully and with great alert the development on sky. We in the Diaspora have to continue to cooperate with our people and our government to overcome the financial burden that is going to bring the race to sky wars. Even though the war is now over the cold war is going to continue. Ethiopia is not to be trusted.

Finally, Eritrea has the chance to control the situation if it acts wisely by respecting the strategic interest of the concerned parts. On Eritrea side neutrality is the best and the wisest step to success. Eritrea has to balance and act faithfully to fulfill its natural responsibility on the Red sea. I emphasize strongly Eritrea to be faithful and responsible country to keep the balance. There has to be equal treatment to the interest of the Arabs and Israel in particular and the west and east in general. Eritrea has to be capable to actively engage simultaneously not shifting with conditions but firmly consistent both with the Arabs and Israel. Above all the strategic interest of Eritrea is determining factor to the relationship Eritrea to have with its neighbors. By doing so Eritrea can deny the fabrication of lies and influence Ethiopia do against Eritrea to win alliances. That will help at least to over come the difference on sky war.